Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
