Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
