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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still